Dear all,

our next speaker in the Philosophy of Science Colloquium organized by the Institute Vienna Circle is Martina Calderisi (IVC Fellow, University of Turin), who will give a talk on June 25, 4.45-6.15 pm. 

All are welcome!

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Philosophy of Science Colloquium TALK: Martina Calderisi (IVC Fellow, University of Turin)

Probability, Confirmation, and the Base-rate Fallacy

Philosophy of Science Colloquium
The Institute Vienna Circle holds a Philosophy of Science Colloquium with talks by our present fellows.

Date: 25/06/2026

Time: 16h45

Venue: New Institute Building (NIG), Universitätsstraße 7, 1010 Wien, HS 3C

Abstract:

Base-rate neglect is the tendency to ignore or underweight base rates when updating one's credence in a certain hypothesis in light of new evidence. In this talk, I will present two possible determinants of this phenomenon, understood as a fallacy: representativeness and linear integration. I will also put forward an alternative proposal, according to which humans' appreciation of confirmation relations would account for the base-rate fallacy, much as it can for the conjunction fallacy. Moreover, I will test the three explanatory hypotheses against some relevant data, and I will discuss the results of this analysis as well as its strengths and limitations. These results provide support to a confirmation-theoretic view of reasoning under uncertainty, including well-known tendencies to biased judgment of probability. (Joint work with Vincenzo Crupi, Katya Tentori, and Stefania Pighin).