[News] IVC Talk: Martina Calderisi (IVC Fellow, University of Turin) on "Probability, Confirmation, and the Base-rate Fallacy", June 25, 4.45 pm

Dear all, our next speaker in the Philosophy of Science Colloquium organized by the Institute Vienna Circle is Martina Calderisi (IVC Fellow, University of Turin), who will give a talk on June 25, 4.45-6.15 pm. All are welcome! ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *Philosophy of Science Colloquium TALK: Martina Calderisi (IVC Fellow, University of Turin)* Probability, Confirmation, and the Base-rate Fallacy Philosophy of Science Colloquium The Institute Vienna Circle holds a Philosophy of Science Colloquium with talks by our present fellows. * Date:* 25/06/2026 * Time:* 16h45 * Venue:* New Institute Building (NIG), Universitätsstraße 7, 1010 Wien, HS 3C * Abstract:* Base-rate neglect is the tendency to ignore or underweight base rates when updating one's credence in a certain hypothesis in light of new evidence. In this talk, I will present two possible determinants of this phenomenon, understood as a fallacy: representativeness and linear integration. I will also put forward an alternative proposal, according to which humans' appreciation of confirmation relations would account for the base-rate fallacy, much as it can for the conjunction fallacy. Moreover, I will test the three explanatory hypotheses against some relevant data, and I will discuss the results of this analysis as well as its strengths and limitations. These results provide support to a confirmation-theoretic view of reasoning under uncertainty, including well-known tendencies to biased judgment of probability. (Joint work with Vincenzo Crupi, Katya Tentori, and Stefania Pighin).